Aircraft Lubricant Market I Analysis I Growth Projections I Competitive Analysis
The strategic assessment report, from Stratview Research, provides a comprehensive analysis that reflects today’s aircraft lubricants market realities and future market possibilities for the forecast period of 2020 to 2025. The report segments and analyzes the market in the most detailed manner in order to provide a panoramic view of the market. The vital data/information provided in the report can play a crucial role for the market participants as well as investors in the identification of low-hanging fruits available in the market as well as formulate growth strategies.
Aircraft Lubricants Market: Highlights
Lubricants represent a diminutive share of the aerospace industry but play a crucial role in the smooth operation of many components/systems, especially rotating ones. Furthermore, ongoing advancements in many sections of aircraft compelled lubricant suppliers to advance their products better addressing the market requirements. For example, aircraft engines are getting hotter and hotter day-by-day and require advancements in lubrication technology. Turbine oils are now being exposed to temperature ranges from -73oC to 200oC. SAE AS5780 is the engine oil specification developed for next-generation engines. Higher thermal stress in new engines leads to the requirement for lubricants with enhanced oxidation performance and load-carrying without damaging elastomers and seals.
Stratview Research’s estimates suggest that the global aircraft lubricants market is forecasted to reach an estimated value of US$ 1.48 billion in 2025. The year 2019 was challenging for the aerospace industry, especially for commercial aerospace, with several setbacks, compelled the industry giants to reconfigure their strategies. Grounding of B737 Max, P&W 1100G engine series failure (A320neo), delayed deliveries of upcoming aircraft programs such as B777X, and revised production rates of key aircraft programs; A350XWB and B787 due to cancellation of Boeing’s orders from China and other parts of the world are some of the burning challenges of the industry, negatively impacting the entire supply chain including the demand for lubricants, especially at OE level in the North America region.
The concerns of the industry seem to be graver in 2020 as coronavirus is severely affecting the industry. As per recent impact assessment of IATA, there will be a loss of US$ 63 billion in 2020, which is equivalent to 11% of the passenger revenues in the ‘Limited Spread’ scenario and a loss of US$ 113 billion of revenues in 2020, which is equivalent to 19% of the total passenger revenues in the ‘Extensive Spread’ scenario. However, as of now, the assessment of the real impact of coronavirus on the industry is next to impossible – need to have a close watch on the various country’s directives.
However, the long-term outlook still seems vigorous for the aerospace industry including the lubricant market with attractive growth opportunities for the market participants in years to come. Both Boeing and Airbus are still optimistic about the future and have orchestrated positive business in their business outlook. Both are projecting that the global commercial aircraft fleet would more than double in the next ten years. Boeing Outlook: 50,660 commercial and regional aircraft fleet by 2038 from 25,830 units in 2018, growing at a CAGR of 3.4%. Similar forecast for Airbus: 44,862 commercial and regional aircraft in 2038, from 20,870 units in 2018. Increasing demand for fuel-efficient aircraft and increasing share of high-performance capability (HPC) turbine oils are further likely to boost the demand for aircraft lubricants in the coming five years
Stratview has firstly segmented the aircraft lubricants market based on the lubricant type as hydraulic fluid, engine oil, grease, and special lubricants & additives. Engine oil is expected to remain the dominant and fastest-growing lubricant type during the forecast period. Engine oil is widely used in large volumes at regular operational intervals of the aircraft engine, which has led to its dominance in the market. Improved temperature resistance, higher thermal stress, improved oxidation performance, and sealing material compatibility are the modern engine oil requirements. Modern commercial aircraft programs also require hydraulic fluids with the fire-resistant property. There has also been a shift from traditional mineral-based hydraulic fluids to synthetic hydraulic fluids.
Our analysis on another market segmentation, which is based on technology type, includes mineral-based lubricants and synthetic lubricants. Synthetic lubricant is likely to remain the larger and the faster-growing segment of the market during the forecast period. Key growth drivers of synthetic lubricants are stable viscosity, less formation of deposits, less wear on parts, optimized fuel consumption, and do not require frequent oil changes.
Based on the aircraft type, the market is broadly segmented as commercial aircraft, military aircraft, regional aircraft, general aviation, and helicopter. Commercial aircraft is expected to remain the largest and the fastest-growing segment of the aircraft lubricants market during the forecast period. The year 2020 seems to be tough, owing to a host of factors such as the grounding of the B737max, the impact of the coronavirus outbreak leading to the grounding of flights and halt of production in China, and US-china trade war. However, the long-term outlook still seems positive with a plethora of opportunities for the market participants. Major players are advancing their lubricant products in compliance with the modern commercial aircraft engine requirements. HPC turbine oils have been developed with a focus to improve high-temperature resistance, oxidation-reduction, low coking, and elastomer integrity.
Based on the end-user type, the market is segmented as OE and aftermarket. The aftermarket is expected to remain the larger segment of the global aircraft lubricants market during the forecast period. Increasing air passenger traffic and fleet size to drive the segment (air passenger traffic and aircraft fleet growth rates during 2018-2038 are 4.6% and 3.4%, as per Boeing's latest market outlook).
Analogously, the study’s outcome on different application types evince that engine is the most dominant and fastest-growing application among engine, landing gear, airframe, and others. Hydraulic fluids and greases are widely used in airframe applications. Key lubricants used in engine are Eastman Turbo Oil 2380™ and 2197™; Mobil Jet™ Oil II and Mobil Jet Oil 387; AeroShell Ascender, Turbine Oil 500, and Turbine Oil 560. Some of the key airframe application areas are flight control actuators, leading-edge slats, flaps, ailerons, rudder, and elevator linkages.
In terms of regions, North America is projected to remain the largest market during the forecast period, whereas Asia-Pacific is expected to remain the fastest-growing market during the same period. Short-term market demand is challenging in the Asia-pacific region with China and South Korea being severely impacted by the coronavirus outbreaks: Airbus has temporarily closed its A320 and A330 completion centers of Tianjin, China. Based on IATA estimates, Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region are likely to lose more than US$ 27 billion in revenues in 2020. Airlines in China would be most affected with an estimated US$ 12.8 billion lost in their domestic market alone. However, the long-term market outlook seems promising. As per Boeing’s latest estimations (2019-2038), China will need 8,090 commercial aircraft in the next twenty years, 5.2% higher than the company’s last-year forecast.
The supply chain of this market comprises raw material suppliers, lubricant manufacturers, distributors, and OEMs/Airlines. The key aircraft lubricant manufacturers are Exxon Mobil Corporation, Eastman Chemical Company, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, NYCO, Total S.A., The Phillips 66 Company, BP Plc, Lanxess AG, and FUCHS Petrolub SE, and PJSC Lukoil Oil Company.
Some of the Key Mergers & Acquisitions and Strategic Alliances: The market’s attractiveness has led to a series of acquisitions by big players, acquiring small fishes, ultimately pushing the market towards greater consolidation.
This report offers high-quality insights and is the outcome of detailed research methodology comprising extensive secondary research, rigorous primary interviews with industry stakeholders and validation and triangulation with Stratview Research’s internal database and statistical tools. More than 1,000 authenticated secondary sources, such as company annual reports, fact book, press release, journals, investor presentation, white papers, patents, and articles, have been leveraged to gather the data. About 15 detailed primary interviews with the market players across the value chain in all major regions and industry experts have been executed to obtain both qualitative and quantitative insights.
This report provides market intelligence in the most comprehensive way. The report structure has been kept such that it offers maximum business value. It provides critical insights into the market dynamics and will enable strategic decision making for the existing market players as well as those willing to enter the market. The following are the key features of the report:
The aircraft lubricant market is segmented into the following categories.
Aircraft Lubricants Market, By Lubricant Type
Aircraft Lubricants Market, By Technology Type
Aircraft Lubricants Market, By Aircraft Type
Aircraft Lubricants Market, By End-User Type
Aircraft Lubricants Market, By Application Type
Aircraft Lubricants Market, By Region
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