Oil Refining Market Growth Analysis | 2024-2030

Market Insights

The oil refining market was estimated at USD 1.75 billion in 2023 and is likely to grow at a CAGR of 4.34% during 2024-2030 to reach USD 2.36 billion in 2030.

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Market Dynamics

Introduction

Oil refining is the industrial process of transforming crude oil into valuable products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. This process involves separating, converting, and purifying hydrocarbons in crude oil using technologies like distillation, cracking, reforming, and treating. Refineries are highly complex facilities designed to maximize product yield and quality while minimizing environmental impact. The refined products serve as essential fuels and raw materials for various industries, powering transportation, heating, and manufacturing. As the energy landscape evolves, refiners increasingly focus on cleaner technologies and alternative fuels to address environmental and sustainability concerns.

Market Drivers

The key factors driving the growth of the oil refining market are:

• Increasing global demand for transportation fuels: With rising population globally, demand for transportation fuels like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel will increase, driving the growth of this market. According to IRENA, transport accounts for about 30% of global energy use. Growing urbanization will lead to increased fuel use, particularly in urban areas where citizens use personal transport, buses, and trains.
• Economic growth and urbanization: The rapid industrialization and urbanization of emerging economies are propelling the demand for refined products, such as fuels and petrochemicals. The demand for energy and industrial raw materials, which tend to come from refined oil, expands as these economies continue to grow. According to the World Bank, global economic growth is projected to expand by 2.7% in 2025-2026.
• Demand for more refined oil: Growing awareness towards health and surroundings, refineries are spending on technology to manufacture cleaner fuels like low-sulfur diesel and gasoline to meet air quality requirements. There is a growing demand for refined oil due to consumer preference for environmentally friendly products.

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Challenges 

Fluctuating crude oil prices: Fluctuations in crude oil prices pose a significant challenge to the oil refining market. Volatility in prices can be influenced by factors such as weather and geopolitical events, resulting in interruptions in the transportation of oil and oil products. For instance, according to the IRU, oil prices are expected to continue their gradual decline, averaging USD 73 per barrel in 2025, down from USD 79 in 2024, and decreasing to USD 68 in 2026.

Technological challenges: Oil refineries need to upgrade to new technologies to enhance efficiency and minimize environmental footprints. Oil refineries face environmental regulations due to the harmful emissions, high consumption of water, and production of toxic waste. To meet these demands, refineries need technological upgrades, which in turn will require high investment.

Key Players

The following are the key players in the oil refining market:

• BP PLC
• Chevron Corporation
• China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
• Exxon Mobil Corporation
• Petróleos de Venezuela SA
• Rosneft PAO
• Royal Dutch Shell Plc
• Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
• Sinopec Corp.
• Total SA
• others.

Segment Analysis

By Complexity Type

"The topping oil refining market is expected to register robust growth during the forecast period."

The oil refining market is segmented into topping, conversion, and deep conversion. The topping oil refining market is expected to register robust growth due to its ability to transform to high-value products through the cracking of larger molecules into smaller ones. Conversion refining has the ability to eliminate the residuals from fuel. Deep conversion refining is expected to be driven by stringent regulations pertaining to product quality specifications.

By Product Type

"Middle distillate dominated market in 2023."

The market is segmented as light distillates, middle distillates, fuel oil, and others. Middle distillate delivers flammable liquids of the shorter carbon chains (with 10-20 carbon atoms) compared to light distillates and hence, dominated the market in 2023. Oil refined through middle distillates has wide application in industries such as aviation, power generation, and marine bunkers. The light distillates oil refining market to grow with the increasing spending capacity of an expanding middle-class population.

By Fuel Type

"Gasoline oil refining is expected to grow during the forecast period."

The oil refining market is segmented as gasoline, gasoil, kerosene, LPG, and others. Gasoline oil refining is expected to grow with the increased uses of it in the transportation industry. Increasing passenger vehicle fleets in developing countries to drive the gasoline demand in the coming years.

By Application Type

"Transportation and petrochemical industries will drive the market over the forecast period."

The oil refining market is segmented as transportation, aviation, marine bunker, petrochemical, residential & commercial, agriculture, electricity generation, and others. Transportation and petrochemical industries to consume the largest chunk of the refined oil and will drive the market over the forecast period.

Regional Insights

"Asia-Pacific has the highest refining capacity & accounted for significant share in global market in 2023."

Asia-Pacific has the highest refining capacity. China and India are the key countries in the region and will account for a significant share in global market in 2023. These two countries also witnessed refining capacity expansion in the last few years. Other than these two countries, Southeast Asian countries have also commissioned a number of refinery projects to reduce dependency on imports.

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Research Methodology

• This strategic assessment report, from Stratview Research, provides a comprehensive analysis that reflects today’s oil refining market realities and future market possibilities for the forecast period.
• The report segments and analyzes the market in the most detailed manner to provide a panoramic view of the market.
• The vital data/information provided in the report can play a crucial role for market participants as well as investors in the identification of the low-hanging fruits available in the market as well as to formulate growth strategies to expedite their growth process.
• This report offers high-quality insights and is the outcome of a detailed research methodology comprising extensive secondary research, rigorous primary interviews with industry stakeholders, and validation and triangulation with Stratview Research’s internal database and statistical tools.
• More than 1,000 authenticated secondary sources, such as company annual reports, fact books, press releases, journals, investor presentations, white papers, patents, and articles, have been leveraged to gather the data.
• We conducted more than 15 detailed primary interviews with market players across the value chain in all four regions and industry experts to obtain both qualitative and quantitative insights.

Report Features

This report provides market intelligence in the most comprehensive way. The report structure has been kept such that it offers maximum business value. It provides critical insights into market dynamics and will enable strategic decision-making for existing market players as well as those willing to enter the market. The following are the key features of the report:

• Market structure: Overview, industry life cycle analysis, supply chain analysis.
• Market environment analysis: Growth drivers and constraints, Porter’s five forces analysis, SWOT analysis.
• Market trend and forecast analysis.
• Market segment trend and forecast.
• Competitive landscape and dynamics: Market share, Service portfolio, New Product Launches, etc.
• COVID-19 impact and its recovery curve
• Attractive market segments and associated growth opportunities.
• Emerging trends.
• Strategic growth opportunities for the existing and new players.
• Key success factors.

Market Segmentation

This report studies the market, covering a period of 12 years of trend and forecast. The report provides detailed insights into the market dynamics to enable informed business decision-making and growth strategy formulation based on the opportunities present in the market.

The oil refining market is segmented into the following categories:

By Complexity Type

• Topping
• Conversion
• Deep Conversion

By Product Type

• Light Distillates
• Middle Distillates
• Fuel Oil
• Others

By Fuel Type

• Gasoline
• Gasoil
• Kerosene
• LPG
• Others

By Application Type

• Transportation
• Aviation
• Marine Bunker
• Petrochemical
• Residential & Commercial
• Agriculture
• Electricity Generation
• Others

By Region

• North America (Country Analysis: the USA, Canada, and Mexico)
• Europe (Country Analysis: Germany, France, the UK, Russia, Spain, and the Rest of Europe)
• Asia-Pacific (Country Analysis: China, Japan, India, South Korea, and the Rest of Asia-Pacific)
• Rest of the World (Sub-Region Analysis: Latin America, the Middle East, and Others)

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Customization Options

Stratview Research offers one of the following free customization options to our respectable clients:

Company Profiling

• Detailed profiling of additional market players (up to 3 players)
• SWOT analysis of key players (up to 3 players)

Market Segmentation

• Current market segmentation of any one of the form Complexity type by Application type.

Competitive Benchmarking

• Benchmarking of key players on the following parameters: Product portfolio, geographical reach, regional presence, and strategic alliances

Custom Research: Stratview Research offers custom research services across sectors. In case of any custom research requirement related to market assessment, competitive benchmarking, sourcing and procurement, target screening, and others, please send your inquiry at sales@stratviewresearch.com.